Mexico City GP tyre strategy: Pirelli sees one stop and two stops level as Hamilton starts on pole

Result, 1 November: Max Verstappen won the Mexico City Grand Prix ahead of Lewis Hamilton, and Kimi Antonelli finished third to become the 2026 Formula 1 world champion. Full classification: Mexico City Grand Prix 2026 results. Our report: Verstappen wins as Antonelli is crowned.

Pirelli sees no clear favourite strategy for the Mexico City Grand Prix, where Lewis Hamilton starts from pole for Ferrari this afternoon. In the tyre maker’s simulations a one-stop and a two-stop race take almost exactly the same time, so the deciding factor may well be the traffic each driver finds after a pit stop.

The full grid and qualifying times: Hamilton takes Mexico City GP pole by nine thousandths.

Medium to Soft, with the stop between laps 35 and 41

Pirelli has brought its three softest compounds to the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez: the C3 as Hard, the C4 as Medium and the C5 as Soft. The most likely race, according to Pirelli Motorsport Director Dario Marrafuschi, is a single stop. “Many teams may choose to start on the Medium and switch to the Soft between laps 35 and 41, taking it through to the chequered flag,” he said in Pirelli’s Saturday release. “In this scenario, tyre management will remain an important factor despite the relatively low degradation levels.”

Soft, Medium, Soft: a two-stop race that depends on traffic

The alternative is two stops, starting on the Soft, then a Medium stint and a final run on the Soft again. “According to our simulations, there is no significant difference in total race time between these two options,” Marrafuschi said. The catch is track position. Teams that go for two stops “will need to carefully assess the impact of traffic, as the number of cars they may need to overtake after each stop could prove decisive.”

The Hard is out of the picture, unless the safety car comes early

Pirelli does not expect the white-walled tyre to play a big part. “The Hard does not appear to be a particularly competitive choice compared with the main alternatives,” Marrafuschi said. An early neutralisation could change that: with a safety car in the first laps, teams could run to the flag on the C3 or switch to a two-stop plan.

No graining on Saturday after a tough Friday

The tyres looked better as the track rubbered in. On Friday Pirelli still reported high degradation and graining on the front left in the long runs. A day later that had gone. Marrafuschi said that “compared with yesterday we have not observed any significant abrasion or graining, and several long runs showed tyres remaining in very good condition.” Track temperature peaked at 48°C in the closing stages of final practice.

Qualifying was run entirely on the Soft. Hamilton and George Russell each used five new sets across the three segments, Charles Leclerc four.

Our hunch

Hamilton and Russell are separated by nine thousandths of a second at the front, and at a track where overtaking is hard, neither will want to give up track position. Expect the front row to go Medium to Soft and stop once. The two-stop plan looks more like a weapon for the drivers just behind, Kimi Antonelli in fourth and Max Verstappen in fifth, if they find clean air after their stops. Leclerc used one new set of Softs fewer than the two cars ahead of him in qualifying, which could give Ferrari a little more freedom on his side of the garage.

Lights out at 14:00 local time

The race starts at 14:00 local time, 20:00 UK, 21:00 CET and 15:00 ET. Antonelli can clinch the title today: the 2026 championship permutations. The result follows on our Mexico City Grand Prix 2026 results page.

Sources: Pirelli Motorsport press releases of 30 and 31 October 2026 and the Saturday report graphic (Pirelli F1 Press Area).

Will the Mexico City Grand Prix be won on one stop or two? Tell us in the comments.