Seven drivers can still win the 2026 title on paper, but only Russell can realistically stop Antonelli
208 points are left in eight races and a sprint. Hadjar is out, Piastri needs the Gulf races, and Antonelli cannot clinch before Austin
Seven drivers can still win the 2026 Formula 1 world championship. That is the answer the arithmetic gives after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, with eight rounds and one sprint to go. The answer the racing gives is much shorter: it is Kimi Antonelli against George Russell, two drivers in the same Mercedes garage, and one of them leads by 66 points.
There is no Grand Prix this Sunday, because Baku ran its race on Saturday, so this is a good moment to do the sums properly.
208 points are still on the table
The calendar has eight Grands Prix left: the Bahrain Grand Prix, which is being held at Sepang in Malaysia on 2 to 4 October, then Singapore, the United States, Mexico, São Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Singapore is the last sprint weekend of the year.
A Grand Prix win is worth 25 points and there is no longer a point for the fastest lap. A sprint win is worth 8. Eight wins and one sprint win add up to 208 points, the most any driver can still score. Anyone who is more than 208 points behind Antonelli is out, whatever happens.
Seven names inside the margin, Hadjar just outside it
| Driver | Team | Points | Gap | Maximum possible | Can still win? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 302 | – | 510 | Leader |
| George Russell | Mercedes | 236 | 66 | 444 | Yes |
| Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 199 | 103 | 407 | Yes |
| Lando Norris | McLaren | 186 | 116 | 394 | Yes |
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 179 | 123 | 387 | Yes |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 163 | 139 | 371 | Yes |
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 120 | 182 | 328 | Yes, only if all rounds are held |
| Isack Hadjar | Red Bull | 86 | 216 | 294 | No |
Standings after round 15, from the official classification. Maximum possible assumes the driver wins every remaining Grand Prix and the Singapore sprint.
Isack Hadjar, third in Baku, is the first driver to drop out. He has 86 points, and even 208 more would leave him eight short of the 302 Antonelli already has. Everyone behind him is out too.
Oscar Piastri is still in, but only just. He would need to win everything that is left while Antonelli scores no more than 25 points in eight races. For Max Verstappen the gap is 139 points, which means outscoring Antonelli by an average of more than 17 points every weekend.
Two Gulf races could shrink the maths
The 208 depends on the last two rounds going ahead. Formula 1 still plans to race in Qatar on 27 to 29 November and Abu Dhabi on 4 to 6 December, but the decision is expected by mid-October, with Imola being prepared as a fallback. If both races were dropped without a replacement, only 158 points would remain, and Piastri would be out of contention before another wheel turns.
Antonelli cannot be champion before Austin
The earliest Antonelli could wrap up the title is the United States Grand Prix on 25 October. Even that would need something close to a perfect run: Antonelli winning almost everything in Malaysia, Singapore and Austin while Russell scores next to nothing. In every realistic scenario the fight goes on into November.
There is one more variable in Russell’s column. He is due a ten-place grid penalty for a fifth engine, and Mercedes has chosen to take it when its upgraded power unit arrives during the American races. That is a weekend in which Antonelli starts with a clear head start, in the same car.
Our count: seven on paper, two in reality
We think this is a two-driver championship. Russell needs to take back just over eight points per Grand Prix on his team-mate, and in Baku he took back fifteen. Hamilton, Norris, Leclerc and Verstappen all need Antonelli to fall away completely, and with a 66-point lead there is no sign of that. The grid penalty is Russell’s biggest obstacle: every point he gains in Malaysia and Singapore he may need to spend in America. That is our reading of the numbers, not a prediction anyone at Mercedes has made.
Can Russell overturn 66 points in eight races, or is the title already Antonelli’s to lose? Tell us in the comments.
Next up: Sepang
The title fight resumes at the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia on 2 to 4 October, where Mercedes brings its new aerodynamic package. Our Azerbaijan race report has how Russell cut the gap in Baku, and the full calendar is on our 2026 Formula 1 calendar page.
