Verstappen has one set of Hards for Sepang, and Pirelli sees two or even three stops

Update, 4 October, 09:35 CEST: Heavy rain delayed the start of the race. The FIA has since set the formation lap for 15:40 local time, 09:40 in the Netherlands. The strategies below are Pirelli’s forecast for a dry race. On a wet track the teams run Intermediate and Full Wet tyres, and a driver who uses them no longer has to run two different dry compounds. If the track dries out during the race, the question of Verstappen’s single set of Hards comes back.

Max Verstappen starts the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia from pole, but he does it with a handicap in his tyre allocation. According to Pirelli, Verstappen and Charles Leclerc each have only one set of Hard tyres left for the race, on a day when the Hard looks like the key compound at Sepang. Most of their rivals have two.

Pirelli expects a two-stop race as the norm, with a three-stopper as a real option, and does not rule out rain.

Medium-Hard-Hard or Soft-Hard-Hard

The 56-lap race is run on the C2 as Hard, the C3 as Medium and the C4 as Soft. In its strategy forecast, Pirelli lists three two-stop options and one three-stop option:

• Medium, stop between laps 12 and 18, Hard, stop between laps 32 and 38, Hard
• Soft, stop between laps 10 and 16, Hard, stop between laps 32 and 38, Hard
• Medium, stop between laps 11 and 17, Hard, stop between laps 34 and 40, Soft
• Soft, stops between laps 7 and 13, 24 and 30, and 41 and 47, finishing on the Medium after two stints on the Hard

A pit stop costs an estimated 22.5 seconds. “On paper, the Medium-Hard-Hard and Soft-Hard-Hard combinations appear to be among the most competitive,” Pirelli motorsport director Dario Marrafuschi said after qualifying.

One set of Hards for Verstappen and Leclerc

Those two favourite strategies need two sets of Hards, and that is exactly what Verstappen and Leclerc do not have. Marrafuschi said both drivers “may therefore consider different approaches, making greater use of the Soft and Medium compounds or even evaluating three-stop strategies.”

The Soft is not necessarily a bad race tyre. Pirelli saw so much degradation on the C4 in qualifying that no truly competitive lap was possible after the first flying lap. But on Friday the same compound held up over longer runs when drivers brought it into its working window gradually, and several teams have kept Soft sets back for the race.

No one-stop, and a chance of rain

Pirelli does not expect anyone to try a single stop, because it offers no advantage in total race time at a circuit where overtaking is possible in several places. The heat is part of the story: track temperatures reached 54 degrees in third practice on Saturday before cloud cover moved in.

And then there is the sky. “There remains an element of uncertainty related to the weather, with a chance of rain that could influence the teams’ strategic choices,” Marrafuschi said.

Our arithmetic

With a 22.5-second pit loss, every extra stop has to be paid back on track, and that is where Verstappen’s single set of Hards becomes interesting. If he is forced into a three-stop race, he needs to build a big gap in the opening stint on Softs, while most of the drivers behind him can simply run the textbook Medium-Hard-Hard and wait. A shower would rewrite all of it, and that may be Red Bull’s best friend on Sunday.

Two stops or three for Verstappen: which strategy wins in Sepang? Tell us in the comments.

A start delayed by rain

The race was scheduled to start at 15:00 local time, 09:00 in the Netherlands, but heavy rain delayed it. The formation lap is now set for 15:40 local time, 09:40 in the Netherlands. Read why Verstappen is on pole in our qualifying report, see the grid on our Bahrain Grand Prix 2026 results page, or find out how wear turns into lost lap time in tyre degradation explained.