Is Verstappen leaving Red Bull for Mercedes?

Is Verstappen leaving Red Bull for Mercedes? That is the big question burning through the F1 paddock right now, and 2009 world champion Jenson Button has just thrown more fuel on the fire.

A horrible day at Silverstone

Silverstone was supposed to be a turning point for Red Bull. It turned into another nightmare instead.

Verstappen was riled and fed up after he suffered a rear wing failure for the second race weekend in succession at the British Grand Prix. The Red Bull had been the fourth-best car for much of the season, but Verstappen had worked his magic to sit inside the podium places in third at Silverstone when, with four laps to go, a rear wing issue pitched him off track and into the gravel.

Verstappen later said the incident was caused by a rear wing failure, the same issue that had forced him out during qualifying at the Austrian Grand Prix a week earlier.

Verstappen branded the recurring issue “frustrating and painful” after crashing out with just four laps to go. He admitted he just wanted to go home and forget about Formula 1 for a few days.

The DNF was Verstappen’s third non-score of the championship, leaving him down in seventh place in the drivers’ standings on 76 points. He is now 103 points behind championship leader Kimi Antonelli.

Why Button thinks Verstappen is leaving Red Bull for Mercedes

Speaking on Sky Sports’ The F1 Show, Button gave a clear and honest view. He thinks Verstappen leaving Red Bull for Mercedes is not just possible. He thinks it is likely.

“I think that Max at Red Bull, he sounds really frustrated at the moment,” said Button. “He puts a happy face on a lot of the time, but I think he’s very frustrated with the situation. A lot of people that he’s worked with for many years and won championships with have left and gone elsewhere, and it must be very strange. It must feel kind of a bit lonely in that team for him. Everyone’s brand new around him.”

Red Bull has faced various exits in recent years, most notably Christian Horner, Adrian Newey and Helmut Marko. Verstappen’s race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase will also depart in 2028 and join McLaren, adding further weight to the speculation.

Button added that Verstappen’s management would not be doing their job if they were not already looking around. “The team that, if I was his management, I would want to put him in is Mercedes, obviously alongside Kimi [Antonelli] or alongside George [Russell], whichever one they choose to move on,” Button said.

You can read more about why Russell’s British GP pace gap is the real story over at our dedicated article.

Is the contract really a barrier?

Verstappen is contracted to Red Bull until the end of 2028 but is understood to have a performance clause in his current deal that would enable him to leave early and join a rival team next year if he is not in the top two of the drivers’ championship by a certain date this season.

The result officially confirmed that Verstappen, who is seventh in the world championship, will not be in the top two when the summer break starts after races in Belgium and Hungary, which means a clause in his contract will be triggered that allows him to move to another team in 2027.

Button was also clear that even formal contracts are not always a wall. “All drivers have contracts, but money talks. There’s always a way of moving a driver on to somewhere else,” he said.

What Mercedes offers that Red Bull cannot right now

If Verstappen leaving Red Bull for Mercedes does happen, the logic is easy to understand. The Brackley outfit has won seven out of the first nine grands prix of the 2026 season. That is the kind of car any champion wants underneath them.

Meanwhile, Red Bull has plummeted to fourth in the constructors’ standings, a staggering 205 points behind the dominant Mercedes squad.

You can see how Mercedes is solving Russell’s top speed issue, which shows just how seriously the Silver Arrows are developing their package. And if you want to understand the technical side of their advantage, check out how Mercedes’ electrical qualifying trick works.

What happens next for Verstappen?

The combination of a contractual technicality and Verstappen appearing to be unhappy with his team means noise over his future is only going to get louder in the build-up to the upcoming double header.

For now, the ball is in Verstappen’s court. He is not in a rush to decide, which gives Red Bull time to prove they are still the best place for him.

Button’s message was simple, though. Be selfish. Be ruthless. And do not wait too long. With Verstappen leaving Red Bull for Mercedes a very real possibility, the next few weeks could define his entire next chapter in Formula 1.

You can follow the latest championship battle on our F1 news hub, and keep up with all the standings and results right here on rnt-motorsports.com.